Drew Smyly and the rest of Detroit’s starting rotation has fallen apart over the last month of play. (Paul Sancya/AP)
With their 11-4 loss to the Royals on Tuesday, the Tigers fell out of first place in the American League Central for the first time since July 2 of last year. They then lost a matinee to Kansas City on Wednesday to fall 1 1/2 games back. The Royals, who have won 10 straight and will go for a sweep in Detroit in another afternoon tilt on Thursday, deserve their share of credit for overtaking their division rivals. But a closer look reveals that the change atop the AL Central standings is more directly the result of the Tigers’ collapse.
A quick summary of how Detroit got here: On May 18, it went out and beat the Red Sox in Fenway Park, 6-2, behind a solid start from Anibal Sanchez (who came off the disabled list that very day). That win, the Tigers’ sixth in a row, improved their record to 27-12 (.692) and extended their lead in the AL Central to seven games over Kansas City. With the best winning percentage and second-best run-differential in the majors and Sanchez back in the fold, Detroit was an easy pick for the top spot in our Power Rankings the next morning.
Since then, the Tigers have gone 9-20, the worst record in baseball over that stretch.
“You don’t just lose it overnight,” Detroit’s rookie manager, Brad Ausmus, said after Tuesday night’s loss, but his starting rotation appears to have done exactly that. Sanchez has pitched well since returning, posting a 2.04 ERA in six starts including that Sunday night game in Boston and turning in five quality starts in five turns since. He has been the exception. Here’s how the Tigers’ other four starters have pitched this season before and after that May 18 game (Drew Smyly’s stats in games started only, not including Wednesday’s start):
| ERA before 5/18 | ERA since 5/18 | |
| Justin Verlander | 3.15 | 7.88 |
| Max Scherzer | 1.83 | 6.86 |
| Rick Porcello | 2.91 | 6.00 |
| Drew Smyly | 3.29 | 4.84 |
| Total | 2.71 | 6.56 |
To that bunch you can add closer Joe Nathan, who, prior to May 18, converted 11 of 13 save opportunities without taking a loss, posting a 3.24 ERA. Since then, he has blown two of his four save chances, lost twice (one overlapping with a blown save) and posted a 13.50 ERA.
From May 19 through Tuesday night, opponents have had roughly a season’s worth of at-bats against Detroit’s rotation (691 ABs) and have collectively put up All-Star numbers, hitting .297/.356/.491 with 24 home runs, 105 RBIs and 52 doubles. The bullpen, meanwhile, has been hit to a .291/.377/.425 tune over the same span. As a team, the Tigers have allowed 6.1 runs per game over their 28-game swoon, and opponents have hit .295/.363/.470 against them.
That’s not to acquit the offense entirely. During the aforementioned period Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera have hit like MVP candidates, rookie third baseman Nick Castellanos has found his stroke (hitting .326/.376/.446 since May 19) and rookie shortstop Eugenio Suarez and platoon leftfielder J.D. Martinez have had small-sample success. But the lineup had produced just 4.1 runs per game entering Wednesday. Austin Jackson and Torii Hunter are the biggest concerns there, as both saw their bats go cold in early May and have yet to recover. But those struggles still pale in comparison with those of the pitching staff.
So why did the Tigers’ best pitchers all go bad at the same time? The timing is clearly a coincidence, but there are explanations in most cases. Porcello battled some tightness in his right side in his last start prior to May 18 and had his first start after that date pushed back (spot-starter Robbie Ray gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings in a 9-2 loss to the Rangers). Lingering issues there plus a little correction on his .266 opponents average on balls in play prior to May 18 could explain his problems. As for Smyly, who has seen the least dramatic change in his performance, pitched in relief all of last year, made just five starts prior to May 18, and has pitched well in his last two starts (6 IP, 1 ER in both) prior to Wednesday’s game, so it’s too soon to assert that there has been a meaningful change in the level of his performance.
As for Verlander, there are legitimate concerns about the erosion of his velocity and control that stretch back to last year, to which we can add a sharp decline in his strikeout rate this year. Taken in concert with his heavy workloads from 2009-12 and the very similar collapses of other workhorse aces in recent years, all of those factors are ominous. There’s a good chance that Verlander’s decline could be permanent — not because he can’t survive in the major leagues with a fastball that averages 94 mph rather than 96, but because that drop in velocity in combination with everything else suggests underlying physical issues.
That brings us to Tuesday night’s starter, Scherzer, who seemed to pick right up from his Cy Young performance to start the season but has now been hit hard in five of his last six starts. He is difficult to figure, particularly because the one exception in those last six starts was the first complete game and shutout of his career. Scherzer’s velocity is down a smidge, but not enough to be a concern (less than one mile per hour on the season per BrooksBaseball.net). His peripherals have remained strong during his recent struggles. He has struck out 38 men in 39 1/3 innings (a tick below his usual dominance, but still close to one per inning) and walked just nine over those six starts (4.22 K/BB over that stretch), and while his home runs are up, prior to Tuesday night, he hadn’t allowed two in a game since last August.
Scherzer’s self-diagnosis after Tuesday’s game was that he wasn’t making good pitches with two strikes.
I’m just not putting guys away. If I’m throwing offspeed out of the zone, it’s too far out of the zone. I’m throwing fastballs over the middle of the plate, not located. … The at-bat that really drove me crazy tonight was Salvador Perez. I got 0-2 on him. I’m in the count where I’m in control, I’m in the driver’s seat. I’m ready to collect an out. Instead, I throw four straight balls and walk him. … When I watch video, you see these things happen over and over. The 1-2 counts that I’m stressing to get into, and I’m not putting guys away. … I have to make a few adjustments and make my offspeed pitches better. At the same time, now that I know that, I have the mentality to go and fix it. It should be fun to do over the next four days, and I’m looking forward to my start against Cleveland.
There’s another theory, of course, and that’s that something happened on the night of the 18th that jinxed Detroit’s season. You see, that was the night that the entire team decided to dress in tiger-striped Zubaz for its flight to Cleveland. Verlander was among several players who tweeted photographs of himself in the tacky, retro duds along with the hashtag #dressforsuccess. The first thing that happened after the Tigers boarded their plane in those outfits was that their flight was cancelled due to mechanical issues. The Tigers didn’t get back to their hotel until 3:30 a.m. and didn’t get out of Boston until Monday afternoon for a 7 p.m. start in Cleveland.
The Tigers lost to the Indians that night and went 4-10 between the cancelled flight and their next off-day on June 2. They haven’t been the same team since. Coincidence? Probably, but if this doesn’t summarize the last month of Detroit baseball, I don’t know what does:
A bus full of @tigers pic.twitter.com/DrPXDSTdwD
— Rajai Davis (@rajai11davis) May 19, 2014
